Nursing Workforce Outlook Report 2026
Last updated August 2026 · Sources: HRSA, BLS, NCSBN, NSI
Key takeaways
- HRSA NCHWA projects an 8% RN FTE shortage in 2028 (supply 3,034,360 vs demand 3,301,690) and 108,960 FTE / 3% in 2038 — not a 1.2 million shortfall by 2030.
- BLS projects 189,100 RN openings per year and 5% RN employment growth from 2024 to 2034; NP employment is projected to grow 40% over the same period.
- The Nurse Licensure Compact (NLC) has been enacted in 43 jurisdictions; some have enacted the compact but have not fully implemented it.
- NCSBN’s 2024 National Nursing Workforce Survey puts the median RN age at 50 (it was 46 in 2022).
- NSI 2026: hospital staff RN turnover 17.6%; RN vacancy 8.6%. Those are different metrics — vacancy is not annual separation.
8%
Projected RN FTE shortage in 2028
Source: HRSA NCHWA, Dec 2025
3%
Projected RN FTE shortage in 2038 (108,960 FTE)
Source: HRSA NCHWA, Dec 2025
+40%
Projected NP employment growth, 2024–34
Source: BLS OOH
43
NLC jurisdictions (enacted)
Source: nursecompact.com / NCSBN
17.6%
Hospital staff RN turnover (NSI 2026)
Source: NSI National Health Care Retention Report
1. The shortage in numbers
HRSA's National Center for Health Workforce Analysis (NCHWA) Nurse Workforce Projections, 2023–2038 (December 2025) does not project a 1.2 million nurse shortfall by 2030. Under current patterns of attrition, graduation, and labor-force participation, NCHWA projects an 8% RN FTE shortage in 2028 (supply 3,034,360 versus demand 3,301,690) and a 108,960 FTE / 3% shortage in 2038. Nonmetro areas are projected to have a larger RN shortage than metro areas in every interval year: 11% versus 2% in 2038, 18% versus 4% in 2033, and 24% versus 5% in 2028.
The Bureau of Labor Statistics projects 5% RN employment growth from 2024 to 2034, generating about 189,100 openings per year — most from replacement needs as nurses retire or leave the occupation. Median wages (May 2024 OEWS): RN $93,600; NP $129,210; CRNA $223,210; LPN $62,340.
| Metric | Value | Source |
|---|---|---|
| Projected national RN FTE shortage (2028) | 8% (supply 3,034,360 vs demand 3,301,690) | HRSA NCHWA Dec 2025 |
| Projected national RN FTE shortage (2038) | 108,960 FTE / 3% | HRSA NCHWA Dec 2025 |
| BLS RN employment growth (2024–34) | 5% | BLS OOH |
| Annual RN job openings (average, 2024–34) | 189,100 | BLS OOH |
| Median RN age | 50 (was 46 in 2022) | NCSBN 2024 Workforce Survey |
| Hospital staff RN turnover | 17.6% | NSI 2026 |
| Hospital RN vacancy rate | 8.6% | NSI 2026 |
| Qualified applications turned away (2025) | 93,176 | AACN 7 May 2026 |
HRSA: Nurse Workforce Projections 2023–2038 fact sheet. BLS: Registered Nurses OOH. NSI vacancy and turnover are separate hospital-staff metrics; they are not interchangeable with BLS occupational separations.
2. State-level shortage projections
Shortages are unevenly distributed. HRSA Exhibit 2 lists the ten states with the largest projected RN FTE shortages in 2038 (percentage of demand unmet). Texas, Alabama, and Alaska are not in that top 10. Nonmetro counties face a projected 11% RN shortage in 2038 versus 2% in metro areas.
| State | RN FTE shortfall (2038) | Share of demand unmet |
|---|---|---|
| California | 84,750 | 22% |
| North Carolina | 25,710 | 20% |
| Georgia | 25,110 | 20% |
| Michigan | 20,290 | 18% |
| Washington | 15,020 | 17% |
| Maryland | 10,890 | 16% |
| Oklahoma | 5,900 | 13% |
| South Carolina | 7,250 | 12% |
| Louisiana | 5,680 | 11% |
| Virginia | 8,020 | 8% |
Source: HRSA NCHWA Nurse Workforce Projections, 2023–2038 (December 2025), Exhibit 2. FTEs are defined as 40 hours per week. See also nursing-shortage.
3. Specialty demand outlook
NP employment is projected to grow 40% from 2024 to 2034 — 128,400 additional jobs — the fastest among the APRN occupations BLS publishes. CRNA employment is projected to grow 9% over the same window. Clinical nurse specialist is not a current BLS Occupational Outlook Handbook occupation, so it is omitted here.
| Occupation | Projected growth (2024–34) | Median wage (May 2024) |
|---|---|---|
| Nurse practitioner | 40% | $129,210 |
| CRNA | 9% | $223,210 |
| Registered nurse | 5% | $93,600 |
| LPN/LVN | 3% | $62,340 |
Sources: BLS OOH — Nurse Anesthetists, Nurse Midwives, and Nurse Practitioners; Registered Nurses; BLS Occupational Outlook Handbook, Licensed Practical and Licensed Vocational Nurses (3% growth 2024–34; May 2024 median wage $62,340).
4. Nurse Licensure Compact expansion
The Nurse Licensure Compact (NLC) has been enacted in 43 jurisdictions (states and territories), not “41 member states.” Some of those jurisdictions have enacted the compact but have not fully implemented it, so a multistate license may not yet authorize practice there. Nurses whose primary residence is in a fully implemented compact jurisdiction can hold one multistate license and practice in other implemented NLC jurisdictions without a separate license.
For prospective students, compact membership should influence state-of-practice decisions: earning a license in a fully implemented compact jurisdiction opens multi-state practice, travel nursing, and telehealth opportunities unavailable to nurses licensed only in non-compact jurisdictions.
Check your eligibility with our NLC Compact Eligibility Tool. Source: nursecompact.com / NCSBN.
5. Travel nursing rate normalization
Travel nurse rates peaked in 2021–2022 at $5,000–$10,000+ per week. Since 2023, rates have normalized as hospital systems rebuilt staff pipelines and reduced agency dependency. By Q1 2025, typical travel nurse contracts were paying $2,200–$3,800 per week — a 35–45% decline from peak, but still 60–80% above pre-pandemic staff RN equivalent rates.
Travel-pay ranges in this section are MyNursingSchools analysis, not HRSA or BLS occupational wage statistics.
Travel nursing remains a viable income-maximization strategy for experienced RNs — particularly those with NLC compact licenses and critical care experience (ICU, ED, OR). The highest-paying contracts in 2025 are concentrated in California (due to strict nurse-to-patient ratios), rural states (shortage premium), and behavioral health.
6. What this means for program selection
- Prioritize fully implemented NLC jurisdictions for initial licensure — the flexibility compounds for the entire career, not just early years.
- Consider specialization early: NP and CRNA programs have published BLS growth rates of 40% and 9% respectively for 2024–34.
- Geographic mismatch creates opportunity: HRSA’s 2038 top shortfall states (California, North Carolina, Georgia, Michigan, Washington) are not the same list as older 2030 roundups that featured Texas, Alabama, and Alaska.
- Doctoral trajectories matter more: DNP enrollment reached 44,976 in Fall 2025 (AACN); the DNP is the practice doctorate for APRNs at many academic medical centers.
Use our Nursing Pathway Planner to map a degree path based on your current credentials, timeline, and target specialty.