Nursing Shortage 2026: Statistics, Causes & State Data

HRSA projects an 8% RN FTE shortage in 2028 and 108,960 FTE (3%) in 2038. Understand the scale of the gap, which states are on HRSA's 2038 top-10 list, and what it means for nursing careers in 2026.

Key takeaways

HRSA NCHWA (Dec 2025) projects an 8% RN FTE shortage in 2028 and 108,960 FTE / 3% in 2038 — not a 1.2 million shortfall by 2030.
BLS projects 5% RN employment growth from 2024 to 2034, generating ~189,100 annual job openings, mostly from replacements.
Largest 2038 RN FTE shortages (HRSA Exhibit 2): California, North Carolina, Georgia, Michigan, and Washington. Texas, Alabama, and Alaska are not in that top 10.
Nursing wages rose significantly 2020–2024 due to shortage pressure; median RN wage was $93,600 (BLS May 2024).
The faculty bottleneck — not lack of interest — limits the pipeline: 93,176 qualified applications were turned away in 2025 (AACN).

RN FTE shortage in 2028 (HRSA)

108,960

RN FTE shortfall in 2038 (HRSA)

189,100

Annual RN openings, 2024–34 (BLS)

RN employment growth, 2024–34 (BLS)

Why the Nursing Shortage Is Getting Worse

The nursing shortage is the product of converging structural forces that have been building for decades. Understanding the causes helps clarify why simple solutions are unlikely and why the shortage will persist well into the 2030s:

1. An Aging Population

The 65+ population is the fastest-growing age group in the US, and older adults use healthcare services at roughly 4 times the rate of younger adults. By 2030, all Baby Boomers will be over 65 — creating a permanent structural increase in demand for nursing services with no corresponding increase in supply.

2. Nurse Retirements

The median registered nurse was 50 years old in 2024 (NCSBN National Nursing Workforce Survey), up from a median of 46 in 2022. A large cohort of experienced nurses is at or approaching typical retirement age. Replacing this level of experience takes years.

3. Nursing School Capacity Constraints

The supply bottleneck is not student interest — applications to nursing programs have been rising. The constraint is faculty, clinical sites, preceptors, and classroom space. Nursing schools turned away 93,176 qualified applications (not unique applicants) in 2025 (AACN, 7 May 2026). Faculty salaries in academia remain a recruitment barrier: AACN's vacancy survey found noncompetitive salaries were the most critical issue for 33.7% of responding schools.

4. Burnout and Post-Pandemic Exits

The COVID-19 pandemic accelerated an existing burnout crisis. An estimated 100,000 nurses left the profession between 2020 and 2023, citing moral injury, physical exhaustion, and unsafe staffing ratios. Travel nursing created economic incentives for nurses to leave staff positions, further straining hospital staffing. While travel nurse pay has normalized, many experienced nurses have not returned to traditional staff roles.

States With the Most Severe Nursing Shortages

Projected shortfall figures are HRSA NCHWA RN FTE shortages for 2038 (Exhibit 2). FTE estimates may differ from headcounts.

State	Projected Shortage	Key Factor
California	84,750 FTE (22%)	Largest 2038 RN FTE shortage — HRSA Exhibit 2	View data →
North Carolina	25,710 FTE (20%)	Second-largest 2038 RN FTE shortage	View data →
Georgia	25,110 FTE (20%)	Tied with North Carolina at 20% of demand unmet	View data →
Michigan	20,290 FTE (18%)	HRSA Exhibit 2, 2038	View data →
Washington	15,020 FTE (17%)	HRSA Exhibit 2, 2038	View data →
Maryland	10,890 FTE (16%)	HRSA Exhibit 2, 2038	View data →
Oklahoma	5,900 FTE (13%)	HRSA Exhibit 2, 2038	View data →
South Carolina	7,250 FTE (12%)	HRSA Exhibit 2, 2038	View data →
Louisiana	5,680 FTE (11%)	HRSA Exhibit 2, 2038	View data →
Virginia	8,020 FTE (8%)	HRSA Exhibit 2, 2038	View data →

Source: HRSA NCHWA Nurse Workforce Projections, 2023–2038 (December 2025), Exhibit 2. Texas, Alabama, and Alaska are not in HRSA's 2038 top 10. Nonmetro RN shortage 11% vs metro 2% in 2038.

What the Shortage Means for Your Nursing Career

For people considering entering nursing, the shortage is a significant opportunity. Healthcare employers are competing aggressively for nursing talent with:

Sign-on bonuses: $5,000–$30,000 for new graduates in high-demand specialties
Loan forgiveness: NURSE Corps, NHSC, and PSLF programs cover significant debt
Tuition assistance: Many hospitals fund RN-to-BSN programs for employed nurses
Geographic flexibility: Shortages in virtually every state give nurses real choice of location
Wage growth: RN median salary grew from $77,600 (2021) to $93,600 (2024) — about 21% over three years
Compact licensure: 43 NLC jurisdictions have enacted the compact; some are enacted but not fully implemented

View our nursing salary data by state to see exactly how shortage severity correlates with wages in your target location.

Nursing Shortage Data by State

Select a state for detailed shortage projections, salary data, job growth rates, and local program availability.

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Nursing Salary by State How to Become a Nurse Nursing Programs by State NCLEX Pass Rates Fastest Nursing Programs Nursing Career Pathways

Frequently Asked Questions

How bad is the nursing shortage in 2026?

HRSA's National Center for Health Workforce Analysis (Nurse Workforce Projections, 2023–2038, December 2025) projects an 8% RN FTE shortage in 2028 (supply 3,034,360 versus demand 3,301,690) and a 108,960 FTE / 3% shortage in 2038. Nonmetro areas face a larger gap than metro areas (11% versus 2% RN shortage in 2038). The current HRSA brief does not project a 1.2 million nurse shortfall by 2030.

Why is there a nursing shortage?

Multiple factors are driving the shortage: (1) An aging population — the 65+ age group is growing fastest and uses significantly more healthcare services; (2) Nurse retirements — the NCSBN 2024 National Nursing Workforce Survey puts the median RN age at 50 (it was 46 in 2022); (3) Burnout — the pandemic drove high rates of voluntary exits; (4) Faculty shortage — AACN reports schools turned away 93,176 qualified applications in 2025 (not unique applicants) because of insufficient faculty, clinical sites, and related capacity; (5) Uneven geographic distribution — HRSA projects an 11% RN shortage in nonmetro areas versus 2% in metro areas in 2038.

Which states have the worst nursing shortage?

HRSA Exhibit 2 (2038) lists the largest RN FTE shortages as California (84,750 / 22%), North Carolina (25,710 / 20%), Georgia (25,110 / 20%), Michigan (20,290 / 18%), Washington (15,020 / 17%), Maryland (10,890 / 16%), Oklahoma (5,900 / 13%), South Carolina (7,250 / 12%), Louisiana (5,680 / 11%), and Virginia (8,020 / 8%). Texas, Alabama, and Alaska are not in that top 10.

Is nursing job security good because of the shortage?

Yes. Nursing offers exceptional job security by any measure. The BLS projects 5 percent RN employment growth from 2024 to 2034, resulting in approximately 189,100 annual job openings. Even in economic downturns, healthcare demand remains relatively stable. The shortage means hospitals compete aggressively for nurses — offering sign-on bonuses ($5,000–$30,000 is common), relocation assistance, flexible scheduling, and progressive wages.

How does the nursing shortage affect nurse salaries?

Directly and significantly. Basic supply and demand: fewer nurses competing for more positions drives wages up. Between 2020 and 2024, travel nurse pay reached extraordinary levels ($5,000–$10,000+ per week), though rates have normalized somewhat since 2023. Staff RN wages rose across the board. The BLS reported a median RN salary of $93,600 in 2024 — up from $77,600 in 2021. States with the worst shortages (California, Hawaii, Alaska) pay the highest RN wages.

What is being done about the nursing shortage?

Responses to the shortage include: federal funding to increase nursing school capacity and faculty, expanded NURSE Corps scholarship and loan forgiveness programs, immigration reform to bring internationally educated nurses into the US workforce faster, hospital initiatives to improve retention (flexible scheduling, mental health support, career development), and state-level scope-of-practice expansions allowing nurse practitioners to practice more independently. The long-term solution requires graduating more nurses — which depends on resolving the nursing faculty shortage.